As supply chains expand globally, their risk of disruption also grows. Catastrophic events, such as the Japanese earthquake and Hurricane Katrina, have highlighted the need for analysis of disruption risk and development of mitigation plans to cope with that risk.
At the end of the course participants will: Have acquired the knowledge of best practice of investment strategy in upstream project Have acquired the skills to identify, model and evaluate a project using deterministic and probabilistic approach This course will: Learn the basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical the implementation of these techniques to upstream project Enable participants to identify and quantifying risk using probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation Learn how to assess the value of information in managing the uncertainty of the upstream project using decision tree analysis Bring participants up to date on recent development in project modeling and evaluation using advance valuation techniques.
To achieve this, the attendee will use the free SIPMath add in excel for probabilistic risk analysis, and excel spreadsheet for real options analysis.
Introduction — Fundamental of Upstream project 2. Building a PSC cash flow model 3.
Identifying sources of uncertainty — Sensitivity analysis spider and tornado charts Workshop 2: Building a sensitivity model using data table function 4. Building economic analysis for different reserve and development scenario Workshop 3: Building a scenario model using index match function Day 2: Probabilistic and Decision Tree Analysis 1.
Introduction to uncertainty and risk — Monte Carlo simulation; Workshop 4: Quantifying variable uncertainty in upstream project using simulations techniques; Workshop 5: Introduction to decision tree scenario analysis.
Building a decision tree analysis for Exploration drilling decision.
Harvard Business Case Study: Penzoil vs Texaco Day 3: Modern Real Option Analysis 1. Introduction to real options analysis — Birth and institution behind Real Options 2.
Conventional vs Modern Valuation Workshop 8: Fundamental difference between DCF vs Modern 3. Valuation undeveloped reserve 4. Implementing Real Options in merger and acquisition process Workshop Case Study In Indonesia: Extensive set of course notes detailing valuation concepts, numerical calculations and practical valuation examples.For example, suppose that Liedtke could obtain information about the final court decision before making his current decision (take the $2 billion or counteroffer .
Decision Tree examples use Expected Monetary Value, Decision Trees, and Decision Tree Analysis for the Quantitative Risk Analysis process as defined in the PMBOK version 4 in the Project Risk Management knowledge area.
For the PMP exam, knowledge of Decision Trees and Decision Tree Analysis is necessary. Decision Trees Example – Making. How to make a decision - The Decide step. Addressing how to make a decision is the essence of the Decide step. In this stage of the decision making process, we bring together success factors and decision alternatives for evaluation that will increase clarity for making a sound decision.
Apr 08, · The comments from the oil analysis company were interesting.
New Pennzoil oil. Post by WDRacing» Tue Apr 08, pm. Brand should be a secondary and much less important part of the decision making process. Just my opinion, but I've owned a lot of cars in the last 24 years and I've been the primary . More on the 7 steps in decision making You’ll find more on these and other practical techniques in our e-guide: Making Better Decisions.
It’s packed with practical tools, clear processes, great tools, useful tips, thoughtful insights, and emerging ideas on “nudging” decisions. A good decision analysis Chapter 4 ASW/QMB-Ch 3/8/01 AM Page Chapter 4 Decision Analysis 97 includes risk analysis.
Through risk analysis the decision maker is provided with probabil- In this section we consider approaches to decision making that do not require knowledge of the probabilities of the states of nature.